He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know… and he doesn’t care

If you spend time around politics and politicians you soon realize that some of them really ‘don’t know what they don’t know’ and continue to embarrass themselves with uninformed, grandiose statements. Most egregious are those that reveal an alarming lack of understanding of, or disregard for, the Constitution.

Donald Trump lays out his own vision of his presidency. As President he promises to build a wall along the Mexican border that Mexico will pay for. He will initiate the deportation of 11 million undocumented Mexican immigrants. Never mind the improbability of such an endeavor, never mind the confusion and despair it will engender – he will do it humanely. He will put a moratorium on Muslims entering the United States. At issue is not only his questionable ethics but his misunderstanding of presidential powers. Concentrated power in the hands of an individual or a select group is an autocracy. A Democracy demands division of powers and a system of checks and balances as outlined in the Constitution.

Confident of his persuasive powers, he vows he will renegotiate the national debt with our creditors by convincing them to take less than the agreed to sum. Suppose these creditors are not persuaded. Would he push to default? Leading economist respond by saying this is a fanciful idea, however, it is highly unlikely that any country would accept less then what is owed. As a businessman he could declare bankruptcy or sue. As President defaulting on a debt would be foolhardy. There would be push back here at home and the international community would be outraged. Further, he flippantly questions the need to honor our international treaties.

Less constitutionally astute candidates and citizens believe that the demands and skills of running a business are closely aligned with running a country. This is a false equivalency, a dangerous notion.
Though the President has certain unique powers, he/she is strictly bound by a complex system of restrictions, checks and balances. He/She are faced daily with issues of international significance. In the corporate world stock holders and boards of directors are the primary concern. A President must negotiate with a widely divergent domestic agenda. Congress is increasingly refusing to compromise leading to stagnation in governance, sometimes bordering on subversion. Foreign policy is fraught with danger. One misstep could have disastrous consequences. Flippant, off the cuff statements must be avoided at all cost.

Mr. Trump’s supporters claim his avoidance of federal income taxes is genius. Genius has nothing to do with it. First, the claim that US has the highest corporate tax rate at 35% is a farce. A myriad of loopholes can dramatically reduce the rate. Second, in the hands of skilled (and expensive) tax lawyers, deductions can be found that meet the letter of the law but not the spirit/intent of the law. With these advantages tax burdens are regularly reduced to 0%. Mr. Trump credits his ‘smarts.’ Warren Buffett says the tax code is unfair and proposed The Buffett Rule as a remedy – explained in the National Economic Council’s 2012 Report.

There is a lot Mr. Trump doesn’t know, and worse, he doesn’t care. With few exceptions, he refuses to take advice from anyone. He’ll yield in rare moments but soon the recalcitrant Trump surfaces. He claims he is disinterested in the minutiae of governing. Governor Pence can do that. He ridiculed Secretary Clinton for time spent preparing for their first debate. His ego cannot abide the thought that he is anything less than perfect.

In spite of Mr. Trump’s bravado, insults, and falsehoods, polls continue to show a close race. Yet large swaths of the electorate are reported to be rejecting him – leaving him with only his committed base (those who could see him shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue without losing any votes). However, his base is not expanding. He can only hope for a low voter turnout for the Democrats. States control all voting issues including redistricting of Congressional Districts, voting locations and times of operation, and Id requirements. Among the states, 31 have Republican governors, 18 with Democrats and 1 independent. By manipulating voting laws, a state can have a devastating affect on the voter turnout for the opposition party. This is the ‘trump card’ for Republicans, and the challenge for Democrats.

Mr. Trump has less than a month to prove he has the qualifications for governance. Given his track record thus far, I’m not banking on it.