Art and Science

Politics is arguably more art than science. But “science,” the collection and analysis of data, has an important place in government. Data-driven decisions are generally the better ones.
Last week, we reported on the opinion poll that Don Sebastiani had commissioned of voters in the city of Sonoma on various issues. The results were made public right away in their entirety, which we appreciate – another reminder of the contributions that the Sebastiani family continues to make to our community.
Polls are conducted all the time, of course. Sometimes it’s merely a casual poll of one’s acquaintances, perhaps about sports or some other topic. Or maybe it is about something political; in fact, it seems like every conversation in the last month or two has included the question: “Do you really think two-thirds of the voters will approve a $130 million hospital bond?”
Polls are generally better than candidate elections at assessing voter sentiment, since no personal elements are involved. At the city council, for instance, when several candidates are elected, some may hold opposite positions on a particular issue. Polling can determine how voters feel on that issue, by itself.
The California Teachers Association conducts polls in election cycles on behalf of school board candidates endorsed by its local affiliate. In the last few months, polls have been conducted by the Sonoma Valley Health Care Coalition and by the Sonoma Valley Unified School District. In both cases, the key finding was that the financial proposal in question (hospital bond or school parcel tax) would not, if the vote were held now, pass.
But the science of polling goes only so far, and the art of persuasion is often the better part of politics. A good poll can measure public sentiment and can identify the number of voters who are undecided on some question, as well as what aspects are most sensitive for them. The task of those pushing for change is then to persuade some number of the undecided voters to support that change, using information from the poll about those voters’ concerns.
Of course, it’s not always that straightforward, as voters can’t always have what they want. For instance, 57 percent in the Sebastiani poll said that we need more affordable housing in Sonoma and 51 percent felt that developing more single-family homes would only lead to sprawl and traffic congestion, yet 57 percent were opposed to the 3- or 4-story downtown developments that seemingly would address both concerns. Similarly, 66 percent support the development of vineyard worker housing but 82 percent of those want it built outside city limits.
We found interesting the demographics of voters within city limits: 59 percent are over age 50, 60 percent have lived here more than 10 years, and 65 percent are college graduates. Their feelings on three simple questions were also of note:
51 percent would expand the Urban Growth Boundary for a new hospital;
53 percent would prefer the city council not to discuss national issues;
72 percent don’t mind seasonal religious displays on the plaza.
So what is the final message? Perhaps simply that 53 percent of voters share our feeling that Sonoma is headed in the right direction. Yes, our community is under stress as it tackles the important issues of growth, health care, and education, but our optimism is shared that local government will be responsive and that these issues can be addressed.