County business leaders and government officials gathered in Santa Rosa on Wednesday morning for the annual “State of the County,” where a cold dose of reality was served up with breakfast.
The presenters highlighted both Sonoma County’s competitive advantages and its unique challenges.
Ben Stone, executive director of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board (SCEDB), said overall that Sonoma is competitive with other areas and offers a high quality of life. He said the challenge for the future will be building a sustainable economy. Educating the county’s future workforce will be key for the county’s sustained growth.
The SCEDB released a 52-page report at the event called “Sonoma County Indicators 2009” that tracks everything from how many residents have health care to average traffic delays on county highways. The report compares Sonoma County with the state average and with comparable counties like Napa, Marin and Santa Barbara.
Steven G. Cochrane, managing director at Moody’s Economy, presented the most detailed economic study of the county ever produced. The report was an initiative by the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors, who also formed a new Innovation Council, made up of business leaders from all county industries, about a year ago. The council has identified education as a key area for improvement. The members are also formulating a strategy for making Sonoma County a leader in green industries.
Education
Quality trumps quantity in building tomorrow’s labor force.
A high school graduate earns 50 percent more than an adult with no diploma. That’s big money – not just for the individual, but for Sonoma County.
Cochrane said that if Sonoma County achieves even just a modest rise in high school and college graduation rates by 2020, that could generate:
– 4,800 additional jobs
– $600 million more in output
– $40 million more in additional county revenue
That difference in personal earning power makes the persistent gap between Hispanic and non-Hispanic graduation rates even more troubling.
He pointed out that in Sonoma County, the high school graduation rate is 62 percent for Hispanics, compared to 78 percent for others (Sonoma County Office of Education, 2006).
Nationwide, 58 percent of Hispanics don’t have high school degrees, compared to 5 percent of non-Hispanics. Twelve percent of Hispanics hold college degrees compared to 35 percent of non-Hispanics.
Stone highlighted figures that expenditure per student has increased in Sonoma County on par with state increases. However, California routinely ranks among the lowest states in per-pupil spending.
Housing
Sonoma County lags behind similar counties in affordable housing.
Sonoma County is equal to or better than similar counties and the state on all indicators in the SCEDB report but one: “Percent of Residents Able to Afford Fair-Market Housing.” Sonoma County has been especially hard hit by the drop in home prices, which is bad news for home owners, but means that 22 percent more of the population can afford a median-priced home in 2008 than could in 2007, according to the SCEDB report. On a broader level, while 67 percent of the population in the U.S. could afford a median priced home in 2008, only 46 percent of Sonoma County meets that standard.
In the entire U.S., home prices have suffered a drop of 21 percent since the peak. In Sonoma County, there has been a drop of 39 percent, according to Cochrane.
Tourism
Sonoma is still a hot destination, but even our stable tourism industry will be affected by the slow economy.
Sonoma County beats Napa in total destination spending, which includes everything from lodging to spending on food and entertainment. It trails Monterey, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. Total destination spending in Sonoma County increased 8 percent between 2005 and 2006, the fastest growth rate among comparative counties and second fastest statewide.
The tourism industry has seen stable growth, but Grant Raeside, executive director of the Sonoma Valley Vintners and Growers Alliance and a member of the Innovation Council, said that even tourism wouldn’t be insulated from the economic crisis.
Employment
Don’t expect a quick recovery – 2009 will be tough.
Since 1990, the Sonoma County unemployment rate has almost always been lower than the national average, but as of mid-2008, it was equal. Sonoma County had an unemployment rate of 4 percent in 2007, but it could hit 8 percent sometime next year, Cochrane said.
In 2007, payroll in the county only grew by 3.1 percent, less than in comparable regions. Payroll growth measures the percentage increase in aggregate compensation over a one-year period.
As for job growth, over the course of 2007, Sonoma County experienced a 0.7 percent increase in total jobs, compared to a 2.3 percent increase in Marin County.
Cochrane predicted that 2009 will be the toughest year, with job recovery starting to take off in 2010. The unemployment rate is projected to improve very slowly.
Sonoma County Stats
The 2009 Sonoma County Indicators report is a wealth of statistics about Sonoma County residents. We’ve pulled out a few notable statistics here. The complete 52-page report is available for download here (20 meg).
57 percent of adults in Sonoma County are overweight or obese.
The average Sonoma County commute time is 24.4 minutes. It fell 2 minutes between 2000 and 2006.
In 2006, roughly 75 percent of Sonoma County residents drove alone to work, compared to 12.3 percent who carpooled and 6.4 percent who worked at home.
Passenger loads have increased 422.7 percent since Horizon Air resumed traffic at the Sonoma County Airport in March 2007. The majority of flight service in 2008 was to and from Los Angeles.
Cancer is the leading cause of death for county residents over age 45, followed by heart disease. For residents between ages 15 and 44, the list is topped by unintentional injuries (car accidents, poisoning and falls), followed by cancer.
As of 2005, 91.1 percent of Sonoma County residents had health care coverage, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In 2005, 49.5 percent of Sonoma County teens between the ages of 12 and 17 years reported having used alcohol at least once, higher than the state average.
54 percent of county schools are rated above average in statewide rankings. However, 27 percent rank below average.
In spring of 2007, the Santa Rosa Junior College enrolled 32,669 students.
An additional 17,521 voters were registered between May and November 2008. A total of 74.6 percent of eligible voters in Sonoma County are registered.
Sonoma County is home to approximately 484,470 residents, with a projected increase of 57 percent by 2050. The ethnic makeup of the county is expected to change dramatically as well: 50 percent of the population in Sonoma will be Hispanic by 2050, compared to 17 percent in 2000.
