Analyzing real estate market data may not .be sexy, but it helps you understand what’s going on. Today’s consumer is bombarded with information concerning our economy and the housing market with most information being presented in a “balanced” format. By this we mean that for every piece of good news which is presented, a qualifier may be added concerning the potential for more bad news. Needless to say, this does not help restore market confidence in an area so vital to our national economy.
Lately, good news seems to be getting greater air-time. For example, James Liptat, president of the California Association of Realtors recently announced, “June marked the 10th consecutive month of positive sales gains and the fourth month of rising median home prices.” His report went on to say, “Many first-time buyers especially those who were priced out of certain areas, are realizing that the tax credits from both the state and federal governments, increased affordability, and low interest rates are creating a prime time to purchase a home.”
The New York Times reported last week, “According to recent reports and forecasts by housing analysts, the three-year descent in home prices appears to be at an end. Eight cities, including San Francisco, showed price increases in May, up from four in April, and one in March, according to Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller Index. For the first time since early 2007, the index of 20 major cities was virtually flat, rather than down.” This is good news.
This analysis is supported by our own local data: our regional and local real estate market has improved markedly in recent months. Sonoma County unit sales are up 26 percent compared to the same period in 2008. Multiple offers on competitively-priced new listings are common place. Open house activity is reported to be strong by most agents we surveyed. Mortgage markets are crowded with refinance activity with new home loans often needing 45 to 60 days for funding due to current high mortgage volume and appraisal backlogs.
The table below provides information obtained from Bay Area Real Estate Information Service (BAREIS) concerning the sales activity in both Sonoma County and Sonoma Valley for this year. The numbers indicate that for both market areas both the median price and average price for homes have risen substantially since February. It is possible to interpret the data below as an increase in consumer confidence. The rise in median and average prices indicates that as the pace of home purchasing is increasing, prices are stabilizing, and more expensive homes are being sold.
