Lockdown likely as state sees ‘unprecedented surge’ in Covid spread
Sonoma County’s grim Covid numbers are on the verge of triggering the state’s new Regional Stay Home Order, which prohibits private gatherings of any size, closes sector operations except for critical infrastructure and retail, and requires 100 percent masking and physical distancing in all others.
The restrictions have not yet been imposed, but seem inevitable amid an unprecedented surge in the spread of COVID-19, state health officials announced Thursday. “The rate of increases in new cases continues to escalate and threatens to overwhelm the state’s hospital system.”
The trends are grim. Statewide, new cases per day has increased by over 112%, (from 8,743 to 18,588) and the rate of new cases per day continues to increase dramatically. The number of new hospital admissions has increased from 777 on November 15, to 1,651 on December 2.
It’s that alarming rate of hospitalizations that will trigger tighter restrictions, which several Bay Area counties today adopted voluntarily. For now, Sonoma County is not planning on voluntarily adopting the state’s Stay-at-Home order, according to county officials, but will do so “if the need arises.”
The state is using ICU capacity as its baseline metric. Any region with a projected ICU capacity lower than 15 percent is subject to the strictest measures. Sonoma County and the rest of the Bay Area region have ICU capacity of 25.4%, but that projects to drop quickly.
In fact, Health Officers for the Counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and Santa Clara announced today that they will voluntarily implement the State’s Regional Stay Home Order as early as Sunday, December 6.
State health officers said that is all but inevitable.
“Current projections show that without additional intervention to slow the spread of COVID- 19, the number of available adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds in the State of California will be at capacity in mid-December,” according to a health department statement. “This is a sign that the rate of rise in cases, if it continues, is at risk of overwhelming the ability of California hospitals. “Because the rate of increases in new cases continues to escalate and threatens to overwhelm the state’s hospital system, further aggressive action is necessary to respond to the quickly evolving situation.”
Find more County COVID-19 information and data at socoemergency.org.
