Sonoma Water has announced plans to update its climate change models for the Russian River watershed using the latest available data. Sonoma Valley and the City of Sonoma both are contractors with the agency, and receive water from the Russian River. The agency will partner with Flint HydroScience, LLC to incorporate new climate projections into its Basin Characterization Model, which is used to estimate stream flows and analyze potential impacts to water supplies.
“This updated modeling is critical for planning the future of our water resources,” said David Rabbitt, Chair of the Sonoma Water Board of Directors. “It will help us understand how climate change may affect operations at Lake Mendocino, Lake Sonoma and throughout the Russian River system.”
The $86,000 project will utilize new climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 that are included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Assessment Report. This represents the most current scientific projections of future climate conditions.
Sonoma Water has used the Basin Characterization Model since 2013 to estimate historical and future stream flows in the Russian River and Eel River watersheds. The model has informed numerous water supply and environmental studies, including analyses of climate change impacts on reservoir storage and river flows.
Having the most up-to-date projections can help Sonoma Water staff plan for proposed changes to the Potter Valley Project and future operations of regional reservoirs.
The modeling updates are expected to be completed in early 2025, with ongoing support from Flint HydroScience through the end of the contract in October 2027. Results will be used to analyze potential climate change impacts on water management throughout the Russian River watershed.
For more information about the Basin Characterization Model, visit the U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center website.
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