Bob Edwards: What Are The Odds?

The Joys of Not Winning $1.8 billion 

As this column was being digitized, the $1.8 billion Powerball lottery was just won by someone(s) soon-to-be-robbed in Arkansas. What a way to end the year! 

Math majors will note that the odds of winning the whole $1.8 billion are 292.2 million to 1. Actually, 292,201,338 to 1, to be smarty-pants precise.

Many believe that with such odds it’s foolish to waste even $2.00 of hard-earned cash to buy a Powerball ticket in the wild hope/delusion of becoming an instant billionaire. Money-wise, that $2.00 ticket is little more than a donation to a fellow lottery player – a total stranger ­– who will win it. He/She may be a n’er-do-well, a MAGA nutcase, a shiftless billionaire, a socialist-commie-pinko, and/or a pal of Jeffery Epstein.  

Nonetheless, your correspondent noticed a long line of otherwise decent-looking folks waiting to buy Powerball tickets (and, yes, I saw you). This prompted some ruminating about the Hope that fuels the lottery: 

Per Professor Google, the odds of winning The Jackpot are stacked against even those who buy multiple tickets. 

• Buying one ticket gives you a 1 in 292.2 million chance to win.
• Buying two tickets gives you a 2 in 292.2 million chance (or 1 in 146.1 million). The odds of winning improve, but not so’s you’d notice.
• Buying 100 tickets gives you a 100 in 292.2 million chance of winning. 

To have any serious chance at winning the Jackpot one should probably buy at least 292,201,338 tickets, at $2.00 each.  That means spending  $584,402,676 to win $1,800,000,000, at least half of which will be taken as taxes, leaving after-tax cash of about $900,000,000. Minus, of course, the $584,402,676 you spend for the tickets, leaving $315,597,324 in net “profits” on that $584,402,676 “investment.” 

That’s more math than anyone should have to endure just to win a lousy half-billion dollars. But there’s some good news: Professor Google says the overall odds of winning any prizes – which typically range from $4 up to the jackpot – are much better, at approximately 1 in 24.87. Whoop-ee. 

But consider: With a college degree(s), good job, endless sweat, shrewd investing and/or old-fashioned bank robbery, what are the odds of earning $315,597,324 after-tax dollars in the time it takes to buy a $2 Powerball ticket and await the results?  Yep – less than zero. 

Far more guaranteed is the Joy that comes with Imagining what you’d do with it if your ticket actually wins all that cash. 

While waiting to see if it does, make a Happy List of what you’d do with those millions. Sure, there’s the usual stuff you might buy right away: College education for the kids, new house, car(s), new wardrobe, luxury cruises, clean underwear, etc.  But the best fantasies are about the Good you could do with that avalanche of cash, while still keeping plenty for personal indulgences/sins.  For example: 

•         Share the loot – enrich family and/or best friends with cash beyond their wildest dreams, as suits your whims.
•         Donate big $$$ to support charities you’ve always admired.
•         Start that business you’ve dreamed about. (Not another tasting room!)
•         Pay off mortgage and credit card debt.
•         Buy several politicians.
•         Finance a cause or campaign you’re excited about.
•         Indulge a personal fantasy. (Not that one – he has too much Secret Service protection.) 

Bottom line: While awaiting the lottery results, that $2 ticket buys a lot of Joy even if you don’t win a dime. And the odds that you won’t are excellent.