Nearly 70 Percent of California Is Now ‘Abnormally Dry’ as a Super El Niño Builds Offshore

Fall officially arrived this week, and nearly 70 percent of California is abnormally dry or worse, with above-normal temperatures forecast to hang on through the end of the year.

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s weekly update on Thursday, September 24, put 69.7 percent of the state in abnormally dry conditions, with about 23 percent in moderate drought. Roughly 2.4 million Californians live in drought-affected areas, and the dry zone covers Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, Sutter and El Dorado counties.

Reservoirs remain in decent shape thanks to two wet winters. Statewide storage sat at 22.9 million acre-feet on September 23, about 106 percent of the historical average. Shasta Lake is at 55 percent of capacity, Lake Oroville at 50 percent, New Bullards Bar at 73 percent and Folsom Lake at 44 percent, all typical for late September.

The dry spell lands as a strong El Niño builds in the Pacific. NOAA now puts the odds of a very strong event above 90 percent, and Gov. Newsom declared a state of emergency on September 21 to prepare for flooding. Strong El Niños tend to favor wet winters in Southern California, while Northern California’s odds are closer to a coin flip.

The Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook leans warm statewide, and the Drought Monitor noted several Western states are setting records for late-season heat. That combination keeps fire danger elevated and stresses rivers, which is why the Sacramento River has run too warm for salmon eggs this fall. A big winter could erase the deficit quickly, but until the storms arrive, the map keeps turning yellow.

This article and photograph were originally published by ActiveNorCal

Nearly 70 Percent of California Is Now ‘Abnormally Dry’ as a Super El Niño Builds Offshore

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