Recent polling has found popular support for some voter ID laws nationwide and in California. A 2025 poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies showed a majority of Californians surveyed support voter ID at the polls — 54% overall approved of showing proof of citizenship each time a vote is cast.
The poll numbers underscore the need for the initiative, supporters say.
“We’ve structured this initiative based on what voters across the political spectrum would want,” said Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a Republican from San Diego who is leading the initiative.
Under the proposal, mail-in voters would be required to provide the last four digits of a government-issued ID, such as a driver’s license number. The initiative would also require the secretary of state and county election offices to verify voters’ registration for each ballot cast.
Currently, voters are only required to provide an ID and Social Security number when they register to vote, but not when they cast a ballot. Most states, however, require or recommend that voters present an ID when voting, according to a report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, though only 10 states are considered strict about it.
Experts agree that voting fraud is rare. A 2021 investigation by The Associated Press found fewer than 475 potential cases of voter fraud out of 25.5 million ballots cast in six battleground states in the 2020 presidential election, after Trump touted false claims that the election was stolen.
Opponents of the proposed initiative have stressed the rarity of voter fraud.
“California elections are already incredibly secure,” League of Women Voters of California Executive Director Jenny Farrell said. “There is no evidence of widespread noncitizen voting that would justify adding these strict requirements.”
Voting rights groups also claim the initiative would pose needless barriers and suppress voter turnout. League of Women Voters and other organizations plan to form a campaign committee to oppose the initiative.
Labor gears up for voter ID fight
Another potential opponent is organized labor, which is expected to campaign heavily against the initiative. That messaging will also likely focus on Trump’s support for similar legislation currently stalled in Congress that would require voter ID in federal elections.
California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez told CalMatters that unions will argue the measure is unnecessary. “The California GOP in this situation are just taking Trump talking points,” she said. “I assume that it will be very clear that it’s a Trump fantasy.”
Popular support for some new voter requirements could complicate Democrats’ response to the California measure, said Mike Gatto, a former Democratic assemblymember who authored a ballot initiative on homelessness. He said messaging that’s centered on Trump, rather than voter suppression, would likely play better with voters.
“There’s always going to be that inconvenience of somebody, but I don’t know if that will be enough in the minds of voters to counter the positive messaging on this,” Gatto said.
Gonzalez said she could not say how much unions will spend campaigning against the initiative. “It’s hard to tell, because we don’t know what the initiative will look like. But again, this is a priority for us,” Gonzalez said.
A separate union-supported ballot initiative that seeks to tax the state’s billionaires could make it difficult for labor unions to prioritize a campaign against a voter ID initiative.
If voters were to approve it, California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates the new voter ID requirements would cost the state and local governments tens of millions of dollars to implement.
Initiative supporters started gathering signatures in September and have raised $10 million from wealthy and small-dollar donors, according to DeMaio. It’s primarily been funded by Julie Luckey, who chairs the initiative committee and is the mother of tech billionaire Palmer Luckey. The committee, Californians for Voter ID, raised $8.8 million in 2025. The committee worked with DeMaio’s political organization, Reform California, one of the state’s biggest grassroots fundraising groups for conservative causes.
Last year, DeMaio unsuccessfully introduced a bill proposing similar voter requirements but it had little chance of success in the Democratic-controlled Legislature.
In general, it’s much harder, and more expensive, to pass an initiative than to defeat one in California. Since 1912, voters approved just 35.5% of ballot initiatives, according to the secretary of state’s office.
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