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Larry Barnett: Chance and The Laws of Nature

The laws of nature govern the universe, and we have struggled to discern and understand them. For a while, we relied upon myth and tales of the supernatural to do so, and they remain popular. When the scientific age arrived, reliance upon experiment and prediction came to dominate our explanations, but that approach has been only partially successful. The emergence of quantum physics introduced the element of uncertainty, rendering the concept of inviolate laws obsolete.

Einstein, for example, was a determinist, despite originating theories that themselves contained elements of their own violation. The introduction of chance and quantum probability rather than certainty made indeterminacy a factor of prediction. In effect, the laws of nature include room for random events that cannot be predicted.

Our human narratives, the byproducts of observation, are what enables us to knit an otherwise chaotic universe into something we can understand. The universe doesn’t make sense, our minds make sense of it; the universe is perfectly happy to do what it does with us or without us. The causes and conditions of existence were set in place long before humanity ever existed; we’ve entered the stage in the middle of the performance.

Chance, however, also must follow the laws of nature. When unexpected events happen, they must then adhere to the same physical, chemical and biological processes that govern the expected. Thus, the unexpected chance mutation that produces a cancer cell or an aggregation of blood cells that create a clot must adhere to fixed constraints and opportunities.

Our efforts to cope with the effects of the unexpected are predicated upon our past experience with the expected. Radiation predictably kills cells, so unexpected cancer cells can be and are killed by radiation too.

Like a dog chasing its own tail, humanity chases the unexpected, trying desperately to keep up with a universe that never stops screwing around with our expectations. This was hard enough when we only had to cope with the natural world and its floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, drought, predatory animals and germs. The introduction of human systems – political, medical, social, legal, and technological – has only made coping more complicated because the element of chance also screws with human affairs.

Chance fascinates us; it is beyond our control, and because of that, we fear and worship it. There’s an undeniable power in aligning with the unpredictable; it’s why we gamble, why we like sports, why we hope. Such activities depend upon indeterminacy, a force that appears almost supernatural – the will of God? – and something we otherwise try to studiously avoid.

Coping with a nonsensical universe ain’t easy. When our existing narratives don’t coincide with what happens we complain about accidents, bad luck, and mistakes; we look for something or someone to blame and construct a new narrative. In this way we twist chance into a thread of causality, which reassures us. The essential uncertainty of existence then feels solidified, allowing us to move on, but it’s a fool’s errand. Shit happens.

Denial, anger and blame simply create new conditions into which chance can once again assert itself. You can’t defeat the certainty of uncertainty. Ultimately, we either accept what happens and work with it as best we can, or we don’t. Your choice, and good luck!

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